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Twelve Thousand Bombs: ‘Designing Doomsday’ with Natalie Montoya
Tuesday, February 27 , 5:00 pm – 6:00 pm CST
Nuclear weapons did not disappear with the end of the Cold War. Presently, there are over 12,000 nuclear bombs on earth, owned by 9 nations, kept on the tips of missiles in submarines and silos on hair trigger alert. For the first time this century, nuclear weapons are in the spotlight. Nuclear tensions between the U.S. and Russia have been steadily escalating following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while China silently arms itself to reach parity as a third nuclear superpower. Iran is likely to obtain nuclear weapons in the next few years, while North Korean missiles may soon be capable of reaching the continental United States. Against this backdrop, the U.S. is currently undertaking a $1.5 trillion modernization campaign of its nuclear arsenal, but is this actually necessary for global security or is misguided U.S. military spending driving a new arms race that endangers us all? This seminar series will explore the real dangers and legacy of harm from nuclear weapons so that the ISU community can be informed citizens in a nuclear age.
What would happen in a nuclear war? Do I live near a target? While these questions may never be answered with certainty—and hopefully never will be—there are ways to get an idea of how such a conflict would play out. Simulations of nuclear attacks are a valuable assessment tool to analyze the capabilities of arsenals to inform policies, budgets, and negotiations. This talk explores what goes into these simulations from the current state of the major nuclear powers’ arsenals, to calculations, to targeting. By walking through her simulations of attack scenarios, Montoya will explore the expected casualties as well as the state of the country in the aftermath—what infrastructure is gone, and what that means.
Natalie Montoya is a technical associate in the Laboratory for Nuclear Security and Policy in the Department of Nuclear Science & Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Previously, Montoya was the 2021–2022 James C. Gaither Junior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Twelve Thousand Bombs will run through the spring 2024 semester. A full schedule of speakers is available HERE
